By: Fred Arnold
Coming up on August 24th, 17th Annual Heart of The West Dinner, Auction & Children's Demonstration-for Carousel Ranch,
See attached interview with Denise Tomey, the Executive Director of Carousel Ranch about the Ranch. Equestrian Therapy at Carousel Ranch with Denise Tomey 
Rising mortgage rates combined with rising home prices are reducing the sales of existing homes according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR's pending home sales index for June declined 0.4 percent. Additionally the lack of home supply is also impacting home sales on all levels. Home sale data based on region showed another strong gain of 3.3 percent for the West. The East was essentially flat and both the Midwest and the South showed slight declines.
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The plus factor to limited housing inventory is that home prices are extending their run of strong gains. Sale increase in May was a little softer than prior months, at 1.0 percent which is still quite strong though. The prior two months showed gains of 1.7 and 1.9 percent. May's data show gains across 18 of 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller Home Value Index. Year-on-year, sales show a 12.1 percent gain in May which matches April's recovery high. Home price appreciation is a major plus that's lifting consumer spirits and the economic outlook.
On Wednesday ADP reported that private payroll employment showed significant month-to-month improvement in job growth. ADP reported a moderate increase of 188,000 for private payrolls in June versus a slightly revised and less than moderate 134,000 gain in May. Friday at 8:30AM EST the government will release the latest figures for national employment. The consensus is that the report will show an increase of 195,000 new jobs. The word of caution is that lately analyst predictions on this number have been somewhat inaccurate and overstated as recent employment figures still show the labor market recovering more slowly than we would like to see.
The latest report on first time jobless claims is that they are mostly at their lowest points of the whole recovery. However, the results are less than convincing due to seasonal distortions tied to temporary summer layoffs in the auto industry. Initial claims fell 19,000 in the July 27 week to a recovery low of 326,000.
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As far as economic growth, the second quarter GDP topped expectations but partly due to the fact that the first quarter GDP was revised down to 1.1%. GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.7% however expectations are that the government will likely revise this figure downward when they release the 3rd quarter growth figures in October. (I am starting to wonder what is the point of the government releasing figures that are always being revised?)
After being married for thirty years, a wife asked her husband to describe her.
He looked at her for a while, then said, "You"re A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K."
She asks, "What does that mean?"
He said, "Adorable, Beautiful, Cute, Delightful, Elegant, Foxy, Gorgeous, Hot."
She smiled happily and said, "Oh, that's so lovely, What about I, J, K?"
He said, "I'm Just Kidding!"
The swelling in his eye is going down and the doctor is fairly optimistic about saving his family jewels.
Market moving reports for next week are:
- Monday August 5th - ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
- Wednesday August 7th - MBA Applications
- Thursday August 8th - First Time Jobless Claims
As your mortgage professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate information. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at 661-505-4300 .